Global grain harvest forecast for 2014-2015

World total grains production is forecast to reach a new record of 2,006 m t in 2014/2015, comparied with the previous forecast in January, according to the International Grain Council prediction. Good crops were harvested in the EU, the CIS and the US, but results were lower in Canada, Australia, Near East Asia and Africa. A solid rise in consumption is projected, with feed accounting for around three-quarters of the gain, aided by ample supplies and relatively low prices. Nevertheless, the global carryout is seen up sharply, to 431 m t, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio to 22%, the most in five years.

Prospects for the 2015/16 world wheat harvest remain mostly favorable and only a small y/y decline in production is anticipated, to 705 m t. The preliminary outlook for global maize output in 2015/2016 is for a 5% contraction, to 938 m t, but would still be the third largest crop ever. Despite the drop in output, heavy stocks at the start of the season should ensure large overall availabilities. While strong demand is anticipated, especially for feed, maize ending stocks are likely to remain comfortable.

With global rice  output in 2014/2015 anticipated to edge lower as consumption rises, albeit moderately, to a new peak, world carryovers are set to fall by 8%, to 101 m t. Prospects for a tighter global market are linked to an expected steep decline in major exporters’ stocks, due to reductions in Thailand and India. A Market Focus highlights that the former’s end-season stocks are likely to drop by 24% y/y, as exports increase to a fresh record. World trade is 2015 (Jan/Dec) is projected to contract by 2% from the previous year’s high on smaller shipments to markets in Far East Asia.

The 2014/2015 global soybean outturn is forecast at a peak of 315 m t, the y/y rise of 11% due to record crops in leading producers. Boosted by growing demand from food and feed sectors, especially in Asia, world uptake is expected to rise by 18 m t, to a record of 300m, while end-season inventories will expand by almost half on a build-up of major exporters’ stocks. Led by China’s rising needs, world trade (Oct/Sep) is projected to climb to an all-time high of 116 m t, but growth will be less pronounced than in earlier years. In contrast, global rapeseed/canola trade is likely to contract by 12% y/y, as ample supplies result in smaller imports by the EU and China.

Information from source: International Grains Council